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Global cooling, not global warming.Please let him be right
Mike, Thanks for this. David Whitehouse is a BBC correspondent. It will be great if variations in solar forcing do manage to hold down the increases for a few years, to give us breathing space to tackle AGW. Unfortunately for our children, when the solar minimum ceases, it is liable to give global tempratures a most unpleasant upward bounce. Richard. Royal Society on this topic: Change in solar activity is one of the many factors that influence the climate but cannot, on its own, account for all the changes in global average temperature we have seen in the 20th Century. Changes in the Sun's activity influence the Earth's climate through small but significant variations in its intensity. When it is in a more active' phase as indicated by a greater number of sunspots on its surface it emits more light and heat. While there is evidence of a link between solar activity and some of the warming in the early 20th Century, measurements from satellites show that there has been very little change in underlying solar activity in the last 30 years there is even evidence of a detectable decline and so this cannot account for the recent rises we have seen in global temperatures. The magnitude and pattern of changes to temperatures can only be understood by taking all of the relevant factors both natural and human into account. For example, major volcanic eruptions produce a cooling effect because they blast ash and other particles into the atmosphere where they persist for a few years and reduce the amount of the Sun's energy that reaches the Earth's surface. Also, burning fossil fuels produces particles called sulphate aerosols which tend to cool the climate in the same way. Over the first part of the 20th Century higher levels of solar activity combined with increases in human generated carbon dioxide to raise temperatures. Between 1940 and 1970 the carbon dioxide effect was probably offset by increasing amounts of sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere, and a slight downturn in solar activity, as well as enhanced volcanic activity. During this period global temperatures dropped. However, in the latter part of the 20th Century temperatures rose well above the levels of the 1940s. Strong measures taken to reduce sulphate pollution in some regions of the world meant that industrial aerosols began to provide less compensation for an increasing warming caused by carbon dioxide. The rising temperature during this period has been partly abated by occasional volcanic eruptions. http://www.royalsoc.org/page.asp?tip=1&id=6233Nukes can mitigate AGW too!
[quote]It will be great if variations in solar forcing do manage to hold down the increases for a few years, to give us breathing space to tackle AGW ....The rising temperature during this period has been partly abated by occasional volcanic eruptions. [/quote] Hey...there's an idea, since AGW is the biggest threat facing the planet, perhaps we should abate Global Warming with a little Nuclear Winter? Measurements
Mike do you understand this passage from the Royal Society? Does it influence your thinking? "measurements from satellites show that there has been very little change in underlying solar activity in the last 30 years there is even evidence of a detectable decline and so this cannot account for the recent rises we have seen in global temperatures." Richard
"measurements from
[quote]"measurements from satellites show that there has been very little change in underlying solar activity in the last 30 years there is even evidence of a detectable decline and so this cannot account for the recent rises we have seen in global temperatures." [/quote]
How can that influence my thinking when when NASA says the following. [quote]In what could be the simplest explanation for one component of global warming, a new study shows the Sun's radiation has increased by .05 percent per decade since the late 1970s. The increase would only be significant to Earth's climate if it has been going on for a century or more, said study leader Richard Willson, a Columbia University researcher also affiliated with NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies. The Sun's increasing output has only been monitored with precision since satellite technology allowed necessary observations. Willson is not sure if the trend extends further back in time, but other studies suggest it does. "This trend is important because, if sustained over many decades, it could cause significant climate change," Willson said. [/quote]
I don't know how to get it through your head that when "experts" cannot agree, how do you expect the public to accept AGW and proposed "cures" that could well have no effect, but be devastating to the economy? Bored
There are always disagreements among "experts". Nobody denies that solar output has an influence on climate, but it is a minor influence. Look above, (in the Barmaid Dialogue) and you will find a reference that quantifies that influence. Re the "economic devastation"; the only people to be devastated are those parts of the oil industry who are too inflexible to realise that they are in the business of supplying energy, not just in the business of sucking (oil). The economy is probably going to be devastated anyway, from the sub-prime unwise lending propensity of banks. Untreated climate change will also devastate the economy. Have you looked up the Pascal's Wager link? Mike, I am getting bored repeating myself. The key thing not scientific detail, but the fact that that you are convinced that global warming is a conspiracy whereby radical Greens and Reds have somehow convinced the scientific and political community of the world of a delusionary idea in order to subvert the free market economy. I do not see that there is anything I can do to dissuade you of that view, nor do I feel indeed that it is my responsibility to try to do so.
Climate Change: you need to stabilise the Sun first
Environmentalists constantly keep reminding us that there is a scientific 'consensus' amongst scientists and experts as to the reasons behind global warming and climate change. But hold on a minute - it has not even occurred to most believers of AGW that if you have a consensus, that does not mean you have 'The Truth'. In fact, consensus is not science; its politics. Scientific understanding is not achieved by voting. Like most environmentalist policymakers, including the IPCCs Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis ignores one very important variable in climate change science - the Sun. Scientists and ecologists must first stabilise the Sun before they start tinkering with the earths climate. The IPCCs Summary analysis may sound authoritative, but in reality it is a worthless guide to making policy decisions. Policymakers, political leaders and ecologists have used the IPCCs analysis to offer us their bogus solution: decarbonisation of the globe, or face total annihilation of us and the planet. Why do environmentalists have this obsession with the reduction of CO2 emissions? In any case, CO2 is not a pollutant, we need it. It's a natural part of the atmosphere; it's vital food for plant life. Indeed, commercial farmers and growers use CO2 to enrich their greenhouses so that their fruits and vegetable grow bigger and better. Read on: The Maunder Minimum and the Variable Sun - Earth Connection. 2004 By Willie Wei-Hock Soon (Harvard-Smithsonian Centre for Astrophysics). Hi Courtney
Well, hi Courtney!
I was wondering what was keeping you.
You raise good points.
[quote=Courtney Hamilton]...has not even occurred to most believers of AGW that if you have a consensus, that does not mean you have 'The Truth'. In fact, consensus is not science; its politics. Scientific understanding is not achieved by voting.
[/quote]
You're right on "consensus is not the same as Truth". In fact science can never arrive at truth, only at ever-closer approximations. The scientific consensus has been wrong on numerous occasions, notably over plate tectonics. Usually it is the old consensus that is wrong, resisting and denying the new ideas, as happened with plate tectonics, and the pharmacology of mushrooms. In fact it is the old story of conservatives resisting change.
The old consensus was that the world is a very big place, and we are so small, so we do not make a difference. The incoming consensus is that by using the earth's capital store of energy, laid down over millions of years, in a couple of hundred years, we gave altered the heat retaining characteristics of the planet, and if we do not invest big time in transfer to income (renewable) energy, we could face Big Trouble.
It is not true to say that consensus is not part of science. Thomas Kuhn is one of the two great philosophers of science, and he believes that scientific truth is established by consensus. He has a point, but I prefer the other idea, that a statement in science must be subject to disproof.
So the outcome is that the denialists are the remnants of the old consensus.
[quote]
Why do environmentalists have this obsession with the reduction of CO2 emissions? In any case, CO2 is not a pollutant, we need it. It's a natural part of the atmosphere; it's vital food for plant life. Indeed, commercial farmers and growers use CO2 to enrich their greenhouses so that their fruits and vegetable grow bigger and better. [/quote] Yes, sure CO2 is good for growth. Vegetation = CO2+H2O+SUN+MINERALS. But the proportions have to be correct. Just as too much water or sun can be bad for you, so also too much CO2 is bad for the planet. Life has evolved in conditions of low levels of CO2, not high levels. I have put answers elsewhere about the influence of the Sun cycles. Yes, they have an influence, but not as much as CO2. Have you looked at the Wager video (see above) Regards RichardUNDP predictions
I just picked this up over here:http://tinyurl.com/332wcp It is from the UNDP, about the impact of climate change on human development. Courtney is hot on non-intervention in other countries, but climate change is a huge intervention, imposed mainly by us in the West. Its a kind of imperialism by pollution. They have evidence ot believe that some or all of these things could happen: - The breakdown of agricultural systems as a result of increased exposure to drought, rising temperatures, and more erratic rainfall, leaving up to 600 million more people facing malnutrition. Semi-arid areas of sub-Saharan Africa with some of the highest concentrations of poverty in the world face the danger of potential productivity losses of 26% by 2060.- An additional 1.8 billion people facing water stress by 2080, with large areas of South Asia and northern China facing a grave ecological crisis as a result of glacial retreat and changed rainfall patterns. - Displacement through flooding and tropical storm activity of up to 332 million people in coastal and low-lying areas. Over 70 million Bangladeshis, 22 million Vietnamese, and six million Egyptians could be affected by global warming-related flooding. - Emerging health risks, with an additional population of up to 400 million people facing the risk of malaria.
The poison is in the dose (Paracelsus)
Faeces is a natural part of the ecosphere, but in the wrong place it is pollution. Water is good to drink when thirsty, but polydipsia can kill.
Poor analogies
Feces can be useful to help plants grow. So can CO2. You can drown in 2 inches of water - if you are stupid enough to lay face down. I could predict that the Sahara is going to revert to Savannah, it's still just speculation about the effects of climate change.
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