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Signpost Blog

The death of Obamacare is a vindication for Conservatives.

Iron Mike's picture

Posts:


Last night's elections in the US probably didn't get much international press. But for those who celebrated the death of Conservatism, the wake may have been a bit premature as an experpt from this editorial suggests.

A DEATHBLOW TO OBAMACARE

By DICK MORRIS & EILEEN MCGANN

Published in the New York Post on November 4, 2009

Chris Christie's gutsy win in New Jersey puts the arrogant big spender Jon Corzine in his place. But it is the election in Virginia that probably has more to say to marginal Democratic congressmen considering how to vote on health-care reform.

Obviously, Christie's victory is a body blow to Obama after Corzine outspent the Republican by five-to-one and the president put on a serious push for the incumbent. Corzine's defeat sends a message that the nation is moving sharply against Obama.

But Virginia results are the most important. More than 80 Democratic congressmen and 20 senators come from states that John McCain carried in 2008. For them, the sudden switch in Virginia, a swing state that Obama actually carried, heralds tough political times ahead.

New Jersey is the quintessential blue state. If it goes Republican, blue state congressmen needn't worry. Their districts are likely still safe. But when a Republican in Virginia wins by 20 points, it sends a message to red-state Democratic congressmen to take cover.

Polls indicate a declining level of popular approval of the Obama policies (Rasmussen shows his job approval at 46 percent), but to see actual Democrats losing or barely squeaking out victories in solidly blue states sends a far clearer message to the Democrats in Congress.

Until last night, Democratic moderates, the so-called blue dogs, could bask in the light of their candidate's success in 2008. But now they must hear hoof beats behind them. The party discipline on which Obama depends to pass a health-care program that Americans reject by 42 percent for, 55 percent against (Rasmussen again) will only work if beleaguered Democratic incumbents can wrap themselves in Obama's cloak and tough out the popular criticism. But the limits of Obama's drawing power are readily apparent in the Republicans' 20-point victory in Virginia and the race in New Jersey.

In the coming weeks, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will be asking their troops to cast potentially career-ending votes for health-care changes, Medicare cuts, higher taxes and fines on the uninsured. Whether they take that risk depends on their faith in Obama's drawing power.

But the votes in Virginia, in particular, show the limits of Obama's appeal. The winner, Bob McDonnell, won the attorney general's race in the last election by a few tenths of a percent over the same opponent. That he coasted to so huge a victory in the swing state of Virginia now has to send a message to red-state Democratic congressmen: Obama may be able to survive in the deep water into which he is leading his party, but you can't.

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Boring and enraging Liberals with the truth since 2004



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The death of Obamacare is a



Posts:


The death of Obamacare is a

If the various news reports are to be believed, Mike is probably right about "Obamacare" ending in failure - narrowly scraping through Congress only to be defeated by a hostile Senate.

Short of a miracle, it's hard to see the President managing to get enough people onboard for such a controversial piece of legislation.




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The death of Obamacare is a

We should have a new category on the forums: "prognoses" (to be re-read after a while).




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The death of Obamacare is a

"We should have a new category on the forums: "prognoses" (to be re-read after a while)."

lol yes, good idea. Hopefully Thomas is reading this.




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"If the various news reports

"If the various news reports are to be believed, Mike is probably right about "Obamacare" ending in failure - narrowly scraping through Congress only to be defeated by a hostile Senate"

Sure but the fact that Congress passed it is something of a political win for Obama. Mike's article tried to infer it wouldnt get this far. Am I wrong?



Iron Mike's picture

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No. I think the article is

No. I think the article is pointing to the ultimate defeat, because few want to face a hostile constituency in mid-term elections. Pelosi and Reid are willing to fall on their swords to make an ideological point. But they are the exceptions. The rest will withdraw to fight another day.

Passing the house bill with such a slim margin virtually ensures a lack enthusiasm in the senate. So Obamacare is on life-support and fading fast. The senate bill will look nothing like the current house bill and IF the senate is able to pass it, it will need to go to committee to reconcile the differences. But that is a huge IF since there the senate does not have the votes required now that Sen Liebermann has indicated that he will join the Republicans to filibuster the bill in its present form.

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Boring and enraging Liberals with the truth since 2004




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The death of Obamacare is a

No. I think the article is pointing to the ultimate defeat, because few want to face a hostile constituency in mid-term elections.

Don't you mean hostile campaign financers? It amounts to the same thing in such a crooked system I suppose. If you can't get financed then you can't get elected.



Iron Mike's picture

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Not really. Our own local

Not really. Our own local Demoncrat congressman has been under tremendous local pressure to not support Obamacare. He cancelled his Town Hall and left down in the dead of night instead of facing the public. Yet, his campaign contributions are at an all time high!

If there is anything the New Jersey and Virginia elections prove, even an overwhelming campaign spending advantage can't buy you an election if you violate the trust of your constituency.

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Boring and enraging Liberals with the truth since 2004